The Bowerman is the premier award in collegiate track and field, highlighting the top athlete in the sport for both men and women. While the award isn't officially announced until December at the annual USTFCCCA convention, the Bowerman committee releases watch lists throughout the year before the award's final announcement.
That begs the question, how do the Bowerman watch lists correlate to the award's eventual winner? If the watch lists often feature the winner at a certain point in the season or if the eventual winners throughout the history of the award have had a minimum number of watch-list appearances, we may be able to predict the eventual Bowerman winner from the watch lists.
Using data from and leading up to every men's and women's Bowerman Award from 2010-2022, let's find out how the Bowerman watch lists predict the award's final winner.
The preseason watch list
Almost every year, the Bowerman committee releases a preseason watch list ahead of the indoor track and field season. From the release of the preseason watch list it's an 11-month wait until the winner is announced. However, the watch lists aren't for nought as the data shows some correlation between making the preseason watch list and finishing in the final rounds of the award.
Preseason to winner
Men
In all but three years of the Bowerman releasing a men's preseason watch list, the eventual winner of the award found his name on the preseason list. Only Ngoni Makusha (2011), Cam Levins (2012) and Michael Norman (2018) won the Bowerman after failing to appear on the preseason watch list.
From the winners, only two — Ashton Eaton (2010) and Grant Holloway (2019) — were returning finalists and only two were returning semifinalists — Deon Lendore (2014) and JuVaughn Harrison (2021).
There is a COVID-asterisk for preseason watch lists as no preseason list was released before JuVaughn Harrison won the 2021 Bowerman, but Harrison was a preseason watch list member in 2020 — and made the two ensuing watch lists after that — before the 2020 season was cancelled.
Counting Harrison, that's 9 of 12 men's Bowerman winners that appeared on a preseason watch list. So there's only a 25 percent chance of winning the men's Bowerman if an athlete isn't on the preseason watch list.
THE BOWERMAN: Complete history of the track and field honor
Women
On the women's side, 5 of 12 years saw the Bowerman winner not on the preseason watch list, with Sha'Carri Richardson (2019) and Athing Mu (2021) winning the award as true freshmen. 2016's winner, Courtney Okolo, also didn't appear on the preseason watch list, but she did finish as a finalist for the award in 2014.
Kimberlyn Duncan (2012) and Keturah Orji (2018) join Okolo as the only returning finalists to win the women's Bowerman. Orji is the only woman to have finished as a finalist twice (2016, 2017) before winning the award. Jenna Prandini (2015) is the only woman to win the Bowerman after finishing as a semifinalist the year prior.
Overall, there's about a 42 percent chance of a woman winning the Bowerman without appearing on the preseason watch list.
WATCH LIST: The 2023 Bowerman watch list for men's and women's NCAA track and field
Preseason to finalist
Here's the data when projecting the men's preseason watch list to the final three finalists.
- There's only a 27 percent chance of making the men's finalists without making the preseason watch list.
- 27 percent of the time all three finalists were on the preseason watch list.
- 91 percent of the time at least two of the three finalists were on the preseason watch list.
- Only once (nine percent) has there been just one men's finalist (2018) on the preseason watch list.
- There has never been a year when zero men's finalists appeared on the preseason watch list.
Here's the data when projecting the women's preseason watch list to the final three finalists.
- There's a 48 percent chance of making the women's finalists without making the preseason watch list.
- 27 percent of the time all three finalists were on the preseason watch list.
- 45 percent of the time at least two of the three finalists were on the preseason watch list.
- 36 percent of the time just one women's finalist appeared on the preseason watch list.
- There have been two years (2010 and 2019) where zero women's finalists appeared on the preseason watch list, an 18 percent chance.
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Returning Finalists
Sometimes, a Bowerman finalist has remaining eligibilty that allows them to return to school for another year. Does that mean we should pencil said athlete as the next Bowerman winner? Let's look at the data.
Men
A returning men's Bowerman finalist has opened the season on the preseason watch list every year except in 2012 when German Fernandez, a finalist from three years prior in 2009, received votes. On four occasions, most recently in 2023, two returning finalists made it to the preseason watch list. Deon Lendore in 2015 is the only returning finalist to attempt a back-to-back Bowerman win.
Of the 12 returning finalists through 2022, six finished as at least a semifinalist. Edward Cheserek finished as a finalist from 2014-16 and finished as a semifinalist in 2017. Cheserek has the most finalist appearances of any men's Bowerman candidate. In 2010 and 2019, Ashton Eaton and Grant Holloway won the Bowerman as returning finalists, respectively.
Women
A returning women's Bowerman finalist has opened the season on the preseason watch list every year except in 2016 when Courtney Okolo, a finalist from two years prior in 2014, received votes. In 2018, three returning finalists made it to the preseason watch list.
Of the 14 returning finalists, nine finished as at least a semifinalist. That's 64 percent. 6-14 returning finalists finished as at least a finalist in their next campaign (43 percent), with Kimberlyn Duncan (2012), Courtney Okolo (2016) and Keturah Orji (2018) winning the Bowerman.
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Watch list appearances
Let's figure out the latest a potential Bowerman winner can make their season debut on a watch list and the average number of watch list appearances for Bowerman winners.
Men
Earlier you read that nine (-ish) men's Bowerman winners landed on the preseason watch list before they won, but here's where the other Bowerman winners made their first appearances. 2018 winner Michael Norman first appeared in Update 2, while 2011 and 2012 winners Ngoni Makusha and Cam Levins, respectively, made their first appearances in Update 5 — the latest in Bowerman history. Trends indicate that the earlier an athlete makes their first Bowerman watch list appearance, the better the chance the athlete has to win.
Once the Bowerman winner appears on a watch list, he has never dropped off the watch list. In fact, only 12 of 119 (10 percent) of men's Bowerman watch lists (including semfinalists and finalist lists) have not included the eventual winner.
Women
We've already discussed the seven women's Bowerman winners that landed on the preseason watch list before they won, but earlier appearances on the watch list tend to be a better indicator of future Bowerman success. Three more Bowerman winners appeared on a watch list by Update 1, including 2021's winner Athing Mu when there wasn't a preseason watch list because of COVID-19. 2016's winner Courtney Okolo appeared on the watch list for the first time at Update 2. The latest any woman has ever appeared on a Bowerman watch list was in 2019 when Sha'Carri Richardson appeared on the watch list in Update 6 (more on that later).
The data shows that the eventual Bowerman winner year-to-year will be known before we reach indoor conference championships.
Once the Bowerman winner appears on a watch list, she has never dropped off the watch list. In fact, only 10 of 119 (eight percent) women's Bowerman watch lists (including semfinalists and finalist lists) have not included the eventual winner. That number drops to three percent if taking away 2019's outlier season.
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The weight of the outdoor season
How far can you go without indoor success?
The Bowerman takes into account both the indoor and outdoor seasons. While it is rare, athletes have used strong outdoor seasons to overcome not being on a Bowerman watch list after the indoor season. Here are the numbers.
Men
Only 4 of 36 have been named a Bowerman finalist without appearing on the post-indoor watch list. 2011-2013 were the years where at least one finalist that wasn't on the post-indoor watch list. 2011 and 2012's Bowerman winners — Ngoni Makusa and Cam Levins, respectively — weren't on the post-indoor watch list and didn't appear until Update 5. Andrew Riley (2012) and Julian Wruck (2013) are the other two Bowerman finalists that weren't on the post-indoor watch list. There's only a 11 percent chance that a man can become a Bowerman finalist without appearing on the watch list after the indoor season.
Women
Only 9 of 36 women have been named a Bowerman finalist without appearing on the post-indoor watch list. 2011, 2013 and 2017 saw one finalist that wasn't on the post-indoor watch list. 2014 saw two finalists that weren't on the post-indoor watch list. Impressively, no Bowerman finalist in 2019 was on the post-indoor watch list, with Janeek Brown not appearing until Update 5 on May 1, while Yanis David and eventual winner Sha’Carri Richardson didn't appear on a watch list until Update 6 after outdoor conference championships. There's only a 25 percent chance that a women can become a Bowerman finalist without appearing on the watch list after indoor season.
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Can outdoor championships lead to a semifinalist?
The DI outdoor track and field championships are the final chance for athletes to showcase their skills to the Bowerman committee. There have been a few athletes to have such a spectacular performance at outdoor championships that they end up as a semifinalist despite not being on a Bowerman watch list before championships.
Men
A man has been named a Bowerman semifinalist after not appearing on the watch list that released before outdoor championships 35 of 120 times (29 percent). Twenty of those 34 men (59 percent) made their first Bowerman watch list appearance of the season as a semifinalist after the outdoor championships.
Ten men from the 34 appeared as semifinalists after outdoor championships after previously appearing on the post-indoor championship Bowerman watch list (Update 3). These men fell off the watch list during the outdoor season but likely returned as semifinalists thanks to indoor and outdoor season success at championships.
Marquis Dendy (2014) is the only man to appear on the preseason Bowerman watch list and make the Bowerman semifinalists without appearing on any other watch list in between.
Women
A woman has been named a Bowerman semifinalist after not appearing on the watch list that released before outdoor championships 34-120 times (28 percent). Seventeen of those 34 women (50 percent) made their first Bowerman watch list appearance of the season as a semifinalist after the outdoor championships. Sharika Nelvis (2014) is the only person to ever make her first Bowerman watch list appearance of the season as a semifinalist and advance to become a finalist.
Nine women from the 34 appeared as semifinalists after outdoor championships after previously appearing on the post-indoor championship Bowerman watch list (Update 3). These women fell off the watch list during the outdoor season but likely returned as semifinalists thanks to indoor and outdoor season success at championships.
Semoy Hackett (2010), Shamier Little (2015) and Allie Ostrander (2019) are the only women to appear on the preseason Bowerman watch list and make the Bowerman semifinalists without appearing on any other watch list in between.
🏆: Arkansas sweeps 2023 indoor titles | Florida, Texas win 2023 outdoor titles | How the outdoor championships work
💥HISTORY: Programs with the most titles | Men's champ history | Women's champ history | Bowerman history
🧠 WHAT TO KNOW: Wind and scoring explained | Greatest venues | Best uniforms | The difference between indoor and outdoor seasons
🥇 Tokyo Olympians: Karel Tiga | JuVaughn Harrison | Cole Hocker | Camryn Rogers | Ruth Usoro | Athing Mu | Tara Davis | Tyra Gittens
